AgriCharts Market Commentary


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Corn Market Higher As Producers Focus on Soy Harvest

Corn futures are trading mostly 1 cent per bushel higher this morning. They were down 2 1/2 to 3 3/4 cents in the nearby months on Friday, with Dec corn down 6 3/4 cents on the week. The CFTC report on Friday afternoon showed managed money spec funds still net short; however as of 10/15 it was only at 66,141 contracts. This was the 4th consecutive week where managed money has reduced their net short position for corn futures. Weak export sales continue to be a problem. For the week ending 10/10 corn saw only 368,756 MT of export sales. Exports are still way behind last year, with the accumulated exports for MY through 10/10 at 2.637 MMT and now 63.75% behind last year’s pace. Commitments YTD are the lowest since 1990 according to USDA data. Trade ideas for tonight’s USDA harvest progress are in the 30-33% range. The 5 year average would be 42%.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market 4 to 6 Cents Higher

Soybeans futures are 4 to 6 cents higher to begin the week. Beans closed 2 1/4 to 2 1/2 cents higher on Friday but were lower by 2 cents on the week. Soybean meal finished Friday’s session $1.70/ton higher but ended the week down by $2.30/ton. Soy oil was 39 points higher by Friday’s close and ended the day with a 3 point gain. As of Tuesday, managed money added 16,502 contracts to a long position, while simultaneously the short position was reduced by 26,026. That brought soybean futures to a CFTC net long position of 49,029 contracts. USDA’s weekly export sales report showed soybean export sales were 13.5% below last week but were at the top of trade estimates with 1.600 MMT for the week ending 10/10. We’re still 2.7 MMT behind year ago. Trade ideas for soybean harvest progress are running 37 to 40% for tonight’s report. The 5 year average pace is close to 64%. Egypt (GASC) is shopping for soy oil and sunflower oil.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Markets Higher On Monday Morning

Wheat futures are up to 2 cents higher in the KC HRW contracts this morning, with Chicago and MPLS fractionally higher. Winter wheat gained last week, as Chicago finished with a 24 1/4 cent gain and KC improved 13 cents. MPLS finished Friday down by 7 1/2 cents, leaving it 5 3/4 cents lower on the week. The export sales report indicated 395,122 MT of sales for the week ending 10/10. HRW had a 41.6% share of the export sales, while Minneapolis HRS held a 36.9% share. The USDA reported 34,787 MT of SRW net export sales for the week ending 10/10, which was 8.8% of all wheat. All wheat accumulated exports are up to 9.437 MMT for the MY. That’s 26.88% ahead of last year’s pace and already 38.95% of the 2018/19 MY total.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Futures Market Pauses As Cash Cattle Pull Back

Live cattle futures were down by $1.925 at Friday’s close, however that still left October $1.025 higher on the week. Feeder cattle futures finish Friday $0.70 to $1.475 lower in the nearby contracts, and Nov futures lost $0.60 over the week. Cash cattle traded at $107-108 Friday, and $173 in the meat. That was down $1-2. Managed money grew their CFTC net long position by 79.34% for cattle to 21,543 contracts. In feeder cattle futures managed money was net short 1,277 contracts as of 10/15. The 10/17 CME Feeder Cattle index saw another 45 cent increase, and is up to $145.60. Wholesale boxed beef prices narrow the ch/s spread to 25.00 at Friday’s closing. Choice boxes finished 7 cents lower to $218.04, with Select boxes showing a gain of $0.44 up to $193.04. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for the week @ 642,000 head. That is 10,000 head above the same week last year keeping the ytd ahead of last year’s pace by 280,000 head, at 26.5 million head.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Still Sorting Out Export News

Lean Hog futures lost 17 1/2 to 35 cents in the front months on Friday, pushing Dec futures to $1.65 lower on the week. USDA reported 210,853 MT of pork export sales for the week ending 10/10, just shy of the July 2014 record. USDA indicated this report included some delayed reporting, inflating the totals. USDA estimated hog slaughter for the week ending 10/19 is at 2.726 million head, up 16,000 head from last week and 167,000 larger than the same week’s total from last year. The year to date hog slaughter is 101.952 million head, outpacing last year by 3.61%. The CME Lean Hog Index was at $64.90 on Oct 16. The USDA pork carcass cutout value closed higher on Friday by $0.75 finishing the week at $77.03. The national average base hog value goes into the weekend down by $0.94 at $56.86.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Up as Much as 20 Points

Cotton futures are 4 to 20 points higher this morning. They gained 129 points (2.02%) last week. The US dollar indices are a little weaker, with the UK Parliament failing to approve the Brexit deal over the weekend but the buck higher against the JY. The CFTC reported another reduction in managed money’s net short position, which as of Tuesday was 11,377 contracts. Cotton weekly export sales were up 9.33% compared to last week and were the highest since February, at 206,468 running bales. The cumulative sales for the market year are now at 9.135 million RB, only 0.22% below last year’s pace. The Cotlook A Index bounced up another 100 points on Oct to 75.00 cents/lb. The updated Adjusted World Price of cotton is now 55.26, up 1.36 from last Thursday’s AWP.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.
Omaha, NE 68022
P: 402-697-3623
F: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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