AgriCharts Market Commentary


Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn

Corn futures saw steady to 1 1/4 cent gains on Friday, as March was up 1.81% on the week. This morning, the USDA showed the old crop corn export sales blowing past expectations at 1.888 MMT (74.3 million bushels). That was 38.08% larger than the same week in 2017. Unknown destinations purchased nearly 770,200 MT, with Japan buying 415,600 MT. There were also 2,413 MT in new crop sales. Export shipments were a different story, as they fell 25.9% from the previous week at 659,710 MT, down 28.9% from a year ago. Most of those shipments were to Mexico (252,000 MT) and Japan (216,600 MT). Argentina’s early corn crop was rated at 12% gd/ex and 44.9% poor/very poor by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, compared to last year’s 33.4% gd/ex and 32.7% p/vp at this time.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.52 1/2, up 1 cent,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.60 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.69, up 1 1/4 cents

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.76 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures settled the Friday session with most contracts 3 to 4 1/4 cents higher, with back months steady to up 2. Meal futures were up $3.20/ton, with nearby soy oil up 5 points. This morning, the USDA indicated that old crop soybean bookings last week totaled 1.24 MMT, beating out expectations. China purchased 576,600 MT, with Mexico buying 238,000 MT. The first full non-Holiday week of 2018 also showed new crop sales of 287,660 MT. Soybean shipments totaled 1.179 MMT, slipping 23.8% from a week ago and lagging last year by 25.4%. Soybean meal sales were at 281,820 MT, as soy oil sales tallied 27,922 MT. The soybean harvest in Brazil has totaled 0.8% for far, according to AgRural, compared to the average of 1.2% and last year’s 2.2%. BAGE rates soybean conditions in Argentina at 37.3% gd/ex, vs. last year’s 52.6%.

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.77 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $9.88 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $9.98 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $9.97 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal closed at $331.60, up $3.20,

Mar 18 Soybean Oil closed at $32.28, up $0.05

Wheat

Wheat futures were down 1 to 3 cents in most contracts ahead of the weekend, on the heels of a slow Export Sales report. MPLS contracts are steady to 3 cents lower. The Export Sales report this morning showed all wheat sales of just 153,115 MT, the fourth smallest sale this marketing year. That was above last week’s MY low, but still lags this time in 2017 by 36.9%. Japan purchased a majority of that total at 97,200 MT. There were an additional 37,500 MTs in new crop sales, bringing the total 18/19 sales to 241,252 MT, 1.5% shy of this time last year. Wheat export shipments picked up to 422,383 MT, edging out this time last year by 6.99% and well above the previous week. The Commitment of Traders report on Friday afternoon showed spec funds reducing their net short position in KC wheat by 5,214 contracts for the week ending 1/16 to a net position of -12,386 contracts.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.22 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.27 1/2, down 2 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.08 1/2, down 2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures closed the day with losses of 32.5 to 75 cents, with nearby Feb down a nickel. Feeder cattle futures were $1 to $1.575 in the red. The CME feeder cattle index on January 18 was at $148.01, up $1.54 from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 83 cents at $204.86, with Select boxes 71 cents lower at $200.16. Estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter is at 615,000 head including Saturday. That is 4,000 head more than last week. Cash trade was slow to develop this week, but late trade after Friday’s bell was reported in the $122-123.50 range. USDA reported Beef export sales for the week that ended Jan 11 totaled 15,008 MT. That was slightly ahead of the previous week and much larger than the same time last year. Shipments of beef were tallied at 15,072 MT, nearly 5.06% above the same week in 2017. Managed money spec traders were at their lowest reported CFTC bullish position since Nov 2016 on Tuesday.

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $121.900, down $0.050,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $122.725, down $0.750,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $114.725, down $0.625,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.950, down $1.225

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.600, down $1.575

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.075, down $1.300

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures ended the Friday session mixed, as most front months were steady to 97.5 cents lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 56 cents on January 17 at $73.55. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 77 cents at $81.44 in the Friday afternoon report. The ham and belly primals were the only cuts reported higher. The national base hog weighted average price was down 35 cents to $69.36. The weekly USDA FI hog slaughter is estimated at 2,338,000 head through Saturday, which is 2,000 larger than the same week last year, but 112,000 head lower than last week. This morning’s USDA Export Sales report showed pork sales of 26,365 MT for the week ending January 11. That was well above the week prior and 3.6% larger than this time last year. Pork export shipments totaled 21,152 MT, lagging the same week last year by 9.3% but well above a week ago.

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $72.075, down $0.975,

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $75.500, down $0.400

May 18 Hogs closed at $79.925, down $0.200

Cotton

Cotton futures finished the day 41 to 87 points in the green. Upland cotton sales totaled 275,060 RB in this morning’s USDA Export Sales report. That was slightly above last week but 20.62% below this week last year. There were also 104,632 RB in new crop sales, which is the largest new crop sales total this MY. Exports of upland cotton were tallied at 289,866 RB, a MY high. A majority of those shipments were to China at 100,000 RB. CFTC data on Friday showed Managed money adding 4,216 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 108,778 contracts. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) announced Thursday was up a steep 324 points from the previous week to 74.45 cents/lb. The Cotlook A Index for January 17 was up 75 points from the previous day at 92.85 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 83.420, up 79 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 83.790, up 80 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 84.230, up 87 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.
Omaha, NE 68022
P: 402-697-3623
F: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com